Festival-goers, these are the odds of Electric Picnic being a total washout

By Katy Thornton

August 17, 2023 at 12:05pm


The question on everyone's minds.

Despite Electric Picnic taking place at the beginning of September, a generally fair-weathered month, every year in recent memory has seen a substantial amount of rainfall occur at the festival.

This naturally generates a considerable amount of fear and dread in the hearts of the 70,000 people with EP tickets - while Billie Eilish's music can do a lot for you, it can't rescue your tent from swamp-like conditions.

In fact some people may even base their decision on whether to attend Electric Picnic on whether it's going to be a washout or not. So if this is you, we have some insight into the odds of that occurring.

Casinos.com have looked into the kind of weather that can be expected of that weekend, saying that the chances of no rainfall at all are incredibly slim, at 7/1, or 12.5%.

Met Éireann have forecasted that the rainfall that weekend will be "above average" with the chance of flash flooding in some areas of Ireland.


Electric Picnic unlikely to be a total washout

However, there's no need to be too alarmed. A complete washout, while not beyond the realm of possibility, is unlikely for Electric Picnic weekend, with just 11.1% implied probability.

According to their results, the most likely scenario is that there will be a total rainfall of 0.1-10mm across the three days, which is classified as sporadic light rain. Over the last 10 years, this has been the case four times on these dates although the last time was four years ago in 2019.

A spokesperson for Casinos.com said this of their findings:
“We’re always trying to implement unique odds markets and with the upcoming Electric Picnic festival we saw a good chance to look at data and see what our traders come up with in terms of the weather.
“Of course, we’re not weather forecasters but if history is anything to go by then we’d suggest packing your ponchos before making the trip to Laois this year. Even though it's probably too early to tell, the actual experts in the field seem to think the same. Hopefully we’re all wrong and it will be nothing but sunshine in Stradbally for Electric Picnic this time out."

Casinos compiled their results by using historical data from Met Éireann, combined with data from World Weather Online, which documented the rainfall from September 1 – September 3 over the last 10 years.

Header image via Instagram / Electric Picnic Festival



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